Key Economic Drivers for the Week of August 7–13, 2025: High Volatility Across Markets
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Key Economic Drivers for the Week of August 7–13, 2025
Markets are entering a high-volatility window driven by U.S. tariff rollouts, macroeconomic data, corporate earnings from major tech names, and central bank updates across global economies. Traders should remain focused and flexible.
1. U.S. Trade Policy and Tariff Developments
The United States will implement a new round of reciprocal tariffs starting August 7, affecting exports from 69 countries with rates ranging from 10 percent to 41 percent. Sectors likely to be impacted include semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, and key consumer goods.
Markets are also watching for an August 12 update on the U.S.–China trade truce. Any decision to extend or terminate the agreement could lead to increased volatility across global risk assets.
2. U.S. Economic Data Releases
- ISM Services PMI: 50.1, indicating minimal expansion
- Factory Orders (August 4): Offers insight into industrial strength
- August 7 Reports: Jobless claims, consumer credit, productivity
- Weekly EIA oil and gas inventory updates to impact commodity sentiment
3. Corporate Earnings Season
Q2 earnings continue with major releases from Microsoft, Meta, Palantir, Apple, Amazon, Uber, AMD, and Super Micro Computers. While AI and cloud infrastructure remain strong, weak results from AMD and Uber have raised concerns around growth, margin compression, and forward guidance.
4. Central Bank Activity and Global Policy
The Reserve Bank of India held rates steady at 5.5 percent. Other key banks in focus this week include the Reserve Bank of Australia, Bank of England, and Bank of Japan. Wages, spending, and CPI data from Asia will also factor into upcoming monetary policy decisions.
5. Commodities and Currency Market Dynamics
Oil markets are reacting to tariff announcements and geopolitical risk. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar remains under scrutiny amid macro-driven volatility. Traders are monitoring capital flows and policy shifts across global currency markets.
Technical Market Outlook
Major U.S. indices, including the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, have printed bearish engulfing candles, suggesting potential short-term correction. Key levels like the 50-day moving average are being tested. Despite short-term pressure, the long-term bullish case for large cap tech remains intact, driven by AI development and strong corporate balance sheets.
Summary of Key Watch Points
| Theme | Details and Implications |
|---|---|
| U.S. tariffs and trade | August 7 implementation of new tariffs and possible China truce decision by August 12 |
| U.S. macroeconomic data | Services PMI, factory orders, labor, and credit data highlight inflation and growth trends |
| Corporate earnings | Reports from tech firms with focus on AI growth, profitability, and guidance |
| Central bank developments | Rate decisions and policy outlooks from RBI, RBA, BoE, and BoJ |
| Commodities and FX markets | Oil prices and dollar volatility tied to macroeconomic shifts and geopolitical headlines |
ELITE TIP:
This week is pivotal. The combination of U.S. trade decisions, economic data, tech earnings, and global central bank direction will set the tone for risk across all major asset classes. Stay alert and prepared for sharp shifts in volatility. Structure your trades around the data, not the noise.